One False Step Read online

  Experiment Payload for a Manned Venus Encounter Mission – Venus Tracking and Data Orbiter, M. M. Cutler, Bellcomm, Inc., 1968

  Eyes on the Red Planet: Human Mars Mission Planning, Annie Platoff, NASA, 2001

  Humans to Mars: Fifty Years of Mission Planning, David S. F. Portree, NASA, 2001

  Manned Venus Flyby, M. S. Feldman and others, Bellcomm, Inc., 1967

  Manned Venus Flyby Meteorological Balloon System, G. A. Briggs, E. M., Grenning, Bellcomm, Inc., 1968

  Manned Venus Orbiting Mission, Edward A. Willis, Jr., NASA, 1967

  On Mars, Edward Clinton Ezell and Linda Neuman Ezell, Dover, 2009

  Optical Astronomy on a Manned Planetary Flyby Mission, W. D. Grobman, Bellcomm, Inc., 1968

  Preliminary Considerations of Venus Exploration via Manned Flyby, D. E. Cassidy, C. L. Davis, M. H. Skeer, Bellcomm, Inc., 1967

  Preliminary Mission Study of a Single-Launch Manned Venus Flyby with Extended Apollo Hardware, Jack Funk, James J. Taylor, NASA, 1967

  Russian Planetary Exploration: History, Development, Legacy and Prospects, Brian Harvey, Springer-Praxis, 2007

  Conclusion

   None of the missions described in this book happened. But all of them could have happened, and arguably, some of them should have happened. In 1969, we dared to go to the Moon, ventured forth for three years, and left it – so far for good – in 1972. Many of the moonwalkers are dead now, and the remainder are old men. For a sobering thought, within twenty years it is likely that there will be no-one alive who walked on the Moon. That's just sad.

   Of the five scenarios projected in this book, some of them are obviously less likely to have happened than others. The Project Horizon moonbase was just technically feasible with the technology of the day, but it would have required a national effort an order of magnitude greater than the Apollo program. It would have been a grandiose project, to say the least; even if it had been built, it is not likely that it would have lasted, unless it was quickly followed by efforts from rival nations.

   It is almost good in a sense that Lunar Gemini didn't happen; it would have been an indication that the United States was falling far behind in the race to the Moon, and needed a more improvised mission to meet Kennedy's deadline. Had such a, to coin a phrase, “faster, better, cheaper”, mission been attempted, it would be nice to think that the money saved would have been used in an extended effort in the 1970s, but this seems unlikely; the Moon would have remained a place where humanity touched for only the briefest moment, and still largely unknown. (But could this have proven a spur to later explorations, say in the 1980s or 1990s?)

   Given how much time, effort and blood they poured into it, I firmly believe that the Soviet Union deserved to walk on the Moon. It would have been a magnificent accomplishment, and a grandiose spectacle – but it was reliant on the taming of the N-1, and it is difficult to see it succeeding without considerably more funding, which was simply unavailable. At the very least, Zond 7 or Zond 8 should have carried a crew around the Moon, as some level of payback for the effort put in. The amazing thing is not that they failed to land on the Moon, but that with the handicaps and challenges facing them, they dared to try at all.

   Apollo 18 and Apollo 19 should have been sent to the Moon. Funding was tight, but considerably more money has been spent on storing and preserving this hardware than would have been used for a lunar flight. The scientific payback would have been high, with the landing program finally beginning to develop a level of maturity. Apollo 20 is perhaps a harder sell; cancelling that mission to free up hardware for Skylab was a better decision, and at least the hardware was used. There would certainly have been risks, but no greater than those in previous missions.

   The Manned Venus Flyby. Had I been NASA Administrator in 1967, I would have rejected it instantly as well. It was another great step, but a little too far perhaps with the time required, and would have seen the lunar landings gutted. The flight had to launch by 1975, or face increased levels of solar radiation that would have made the flight untenable, and by the time solar radiation calmed down again, the window of opportunity would have been lost. On the intellectual level, I agree with the decision to dismiss this option, but on an emotional level...it would have been a real spectacular, and a magnificent way to end Project Apollo.

   We are told today that returning to the Moon will take ten years at least; no matter that NASA managed it in eight in the 1960s. The Moon is further away from us now than it was then, so we are told. Too difficult, too expensive. The reality is that one day, probably fairly soon, men will once again walk on the Moon. Once commercial access to space opens up, as it undoubtedly will during the course of the 2010s, it will become possible to other organisations than governments to reach for the Moon.

   At some point within the next twenty years, there will be a new generation of Moonwalkers; it seems unlikely at this point that they will work for NASA, and despite the scaremongering, it is also unlikely that they will be Chinese. It is far more likely that they will have the logo of a private company sown on their spacesuits.

   Tis ever thus; governments, traditionally, have always sponsored the first wave of exploration, the expensive first steps into a new frontier. Once they paved the road, and as the costs fell, private interests took the next steps. What is needed now is a 'British East India Company' of space, and there are signs that such organisations are forming. There has been a fifty-year interregnum – but with any luck, it is about to end.

   One question remains – why go to the moon? What is there? I quote Heinlein, “We'll find out when we get there – we'll tell you when we get back!” The Apollo missions taught us a vast amount about Earth, never mind the moon. By studying the moon we can find out a tremendous amount about the birth of the Solar System, and therefore our own planet. We have barely scratched the surface of the moon, know only a tiny fraction of what is to be learned about it – and about ourselves. It still has many secrets to be found, secrets that could be of incalculable value to mankind. Further; the moon is a vital training ground for future flights beyond cislunar space, to Mars, the Asteroids, and beyond. Much of the infrastructure set up to fly to the moon could equally be used for flights to Mars, to Ceres, or on to Saturn.

   For centuries, the moon has called to the imagination of mankind, drawing dreams and hopes towards it. For one brief decade, we yielded to those temptations and reached further than we ever dreamed possible.

   It is time to yield again.

  Acknowledgements

  First of all I'd like to thank my parents, without whom none of this would have been possible. Second, the many people who suffered through earlier versions of this book, and who have had to endure me talking about this subject for far too long! Their suggestions, advice and comments proved invaluable.

  To NASA, Redstone Arsenal's Historical Office, and the United States Air Force, for providing easy access to documents, monographs and publications aplenty; they proved nothing short of a tremendous book for this researcher!

  To Kings College London, with particular reference to Professor Andrew Lambert; there the road that would eventually lead to this book began...

  And to my readers...who by getting to this point have either sat through the book or decided to cheat by skipping to the end. (The butler did it, folks!) If you enjoyed this book, please review it!

  The writer's blog is available at http://tinyurl.com/pjl96dj

  Table of Contents

  Introduction

  Chapter 1: Heirs of the Columbiad

  Chapter 2: Two Men to the Moon

  Chapter 3: The Moon is Red!

  Chapter 4: The Men Who Didn't Walk on the Moon

  Chapter 5: Reaching for Aphrodite

  Conclusion

  Acknowledgements

 

 

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